Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Mon, Jun 05, 2017 — Tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane Tips
  • Fill sinks, bathtub and large containers with water as an extra supply for washing and flushing.
  • During the hurricane season, fisher folks are strongly advised to stay informed via radio, listen to the weather bulletin before venturing out to sea. Move your boat to safe harbor early.
  • Prepare your car in case of evacuation. Fill your tank and check your tires.
  • Upon alert, farmers should harvest crops which can be stored, consumed and sold.

Several  agro-meteorological stations across the country are used to make the seasonal precipitation  and temperature forecast. This is done by using available historical data, along with Global Models, Observations, Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) and Subjective Inputs.

Based on on all these inputs the rainfall forecast for Belize for the period May - June - July 2017 (MJJ 2017) is for below normal rainfall over northern areas, near normal rainfall over central areas and slightly above normal rainfall over southern portions of the country. Temperatures are expected to be above normal during this period.

Approximate Rainfall amounts that are expected over different regions of the country during the period  May-June-July 2017 are as follows:

REGIONRAINFALL AMOUNT (mm)CATEGORY
North (Orange Walk and Corozal Districts) 300-400 Below Normal
Central Inland Areas (Cayo District) 300-600 Below Normal
Central Costal Areas (Belize District) 400-500 Near Normal
Southern Areas (Stann Creek and Toledo Districts) 700-1500 Slightly Above Normal

The rainfall forecast for Belize for the period August - September - October 2017 (ASO 2017) is for Slightly Above Normal rainfall  over northern areas, near to slightly below normal rainfall over central areas, above normal rainfall over south-central coastal areas and below normal rainfall in the extreme south. Temperatures are expected to be above normal during this period.

Approximate Rainfall amounts that are expected over different regions of the country during the period August-September - October 2017 are as follows:

REGIONRAINFALL AMOUNT (mm)CATEGORY
North (Orange Walk and Corozal Districts) 600-700 Slightly above Normal
Central Inland Areas (Cayo District) 500-900 Near Normal
Central Costal Areas (Belize District) 700-800 Near Normal
Southern Areas (Stann Creek and Toledo Districts) 1000-1400 Near Normal to Below Normal

Click on a link in the following table to view maps displaying some approximate rainfall and temperature values that can be expected across some key district stations during the period. Note that values are not expected to be exactly as depicted on the maps but they should be somewhere in that general range. 

PeriodRainfall MapsPercent Maps (Below/Above)Maximum Temperature MapsMinimum Temperature Maps
May-June-July (2017) Rainfall_Map Above_Below_Map Max_Temp_Map Min_Temp_Map
Aug-Sep-Oct (2017) Rainfall_Map Above_Below_Map Max_Temp_Map Min_Temp_Map

What influences the next season? Recent obervations suggests that sea surface temperatures in the  equatorial eastern Pacific are near neutral conditions. Neutral conditions are expected to persist through May and early June 2017 with a gradual shift toward weak El Nino Conditions during late June into July 2017. This shift toward El Nino is what is expected to cause the dry conditions during this period. El Nino normally surpresses rainfall activity in our area due to strong upper level westerly winds and consequently strong vertical wind shear. This in turn surpresses thunderstorm formation and development.

The information is provided with the understanding that The National Meteorology Service makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or suitability of the Outlook. The information may be used freely by the public with appropriate acknowledgement of its source, but shall not be modified in content and then presented as original material.